PBL (2015): Enhanced Policy Scenarios for Major Emitting Countries

PBL (2015): Enhanced Policy Scenarios for Major Emitting Countries

This report provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 13 major emitting countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, the Russian Federation, South Korea, Turkey and the United States) up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on the most effective current and planned climate and energy policies, as well as selected enhanced mitigation measures.

Earlier studies have explored the extent to which major economies are on track to achieving their 2020 pledges in the Cancún Agreements made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This report extends these earlier analyses for 13 countries, in several ways. First, the effect of most effective current policies is analysed, in addition to planned ones. As policies are subject to change, this report represents the current state of affairs. Second, this report analyses the impact of a selection of enhanced mitigation measures that are related to current national priorities. Third, it projects the impact of these current, planned, and enhanced policies up to 2030. Finally, an estimation is presented of the aggregated emission reduction that could result from the enhanced policies to narrow the gap between the global emission levels in 2025 and 2030 consistent with achieving the climate target of 2°C, and those that would result from current and planned policies.